TEHRAN - Trump's warning of a "maritime siege of Iran" has once again directed attention to the Strait of Hormuz as one of the world's most critical chokepoints for energy transportation; a corridor where any disruption could impact the structure of the global energy market and even seaborne trade.

In recent days, the matter of a naval blockade of Iran has generated widespread discussions among economic analysts, energy security experts, and international organizations, raising serious questions about the repercussions of such a move on crude prices, energy-dependent economies, and global commerce.

For Iran, the countries of the Persian Gulf region, and the major energy consumers in Asia and Europe, the Strait of Hormuz is not merely a transportation route but a key link in the energy security chain. 

For this reason, any change in the status of tanker traffic through this passage has multi-layered effects on global supply, prices, and even the stability of financial markets.

Energy market experts believe that raising the issue of a naval blockade, regardless of its feasibility, creates an "expectation shock" in the market. 

Experience from recent years shows that whenever tensions have risen in the Persian Gulf, the market has immediately reacted with an increase in oil prices. 

Furthermore, analysts emphasize that the global oil market currently has limited capacity to absorb new tensions.

This issue becomes even more critical at a time when oil supply from some countries has already faced disruptions, and consequently, global spare production capacity is very limited. International institutions have also noted in their recent reports that the global oil market is in a "fragile balance," and increased uncertainty could drive prices to higher levels.

New reports indicate that due to declining inventories and seasonal consumption growth in some importing countries, the market will face lower stockpile levels in the coming months. Therefore, even verbal threats can trigger new waves of price increases. 

In this regard, the American bank J.P. Morgan recently announced that the release of US strategic energy reserves can only play an effective role in controlling prices until approximately April 20. According to the bank, after that date, the capacity to continue releasing reserves becomes limited, and this could usher the market into a sensitive phase.

According to this analysis, if tensions in the Strait of Hormuz increase simultaneously with declining inventories, the global oil market will face the risk of "exponential price increases," as there is no adequate alternative supply and export routes are limited. 

Analysts at J.P. Morgan warn that any disruption to tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz could reduce commercial stockpile levels in Asia and Europe faster than expected and cause a price spike in the short term—a situation that could lead to rising energy costs in production, transportation, and services.

Regional repercussions and Persian Gulf vulnerabilities

Alongside the global impacts, regional experts have also pointed to the potential effects of such a threat on the economies of the Persian Gulf countries. 

Many of these nations are highly dependent on oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz, and any restrictions on their tanker traffic could affect their oil revenues and government budgets.

Given that Iran has announced that, within the framework of its sovereignty, it may give "lower priority for passage" to certain countries it considers to be involved in recent tensions, analysts believe some members of the Persian Gulf Cooperation Council will be more vulnerable. 

Reduced oil exports, increased insurance costs for tankers, and the potential rise in transportation costs could put pressure on the net income of these countries. Furthermore, there is concern that declining oil exports could reduce the financial capacity of governments to implement development projects and long-term investments. 

Historical experience from past years has shown that even limited tensions in the Strait of Hormuz have led to higher marine insurance rates and increased maritime transport costs for regional countries.

Some international experts, also referring to the recent crises in the Red Sea, have warned that any simultaneous disruption in both the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea could severely strain global trade. This issue is particularly significant for Asian countries, which are the largest importers of energy. 

If tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz faces restrictions, alternative routes are very limited, and global trade—especially in East Asia—may encounter higher energy costs and slower production. 

Some experts also believe that disruptions to sea routes could affect natural gas prices, as a portion of liquefied natural gas exports also passes through this region.

Political feasibility and risk of self-harm

Alongside economic analyses, some international relations scholars have raised different perspectives on the feasibility of a naval blockade and its consequences. 

They believe such an action would not only have a limited effect on Iran's economy but would also bring unforeseen consequences for the global economy.

Furthermore, the Financial Times believes that Trump's plan to blockade the Strait of Hormuz is high-risk and could harm the United States more than Iran. Trump's plan could dangerously escalate tensions and increase the risk of a wider conflict. 

The report also states that such an action would not only target Iran's oil exports but could also disrupt the global flow of energy and create widespread economic shocks. This plan could damage the global economy and the United States more than it pressures Iran.